July 8, 2019


After the UK detained an Iranian oil tanker in Gibraltar last week, the political scene and the economy threaten to clash. The Trump/Rouhani squabble threatens supplies and peace, after Trump warned Iran not to threaten the world with uranium enrichment. Rouhani for his part seems intent on declaring his nation’s sovereignty by flagrantly flouting its nuclear agreements with the rest of the world.

With supplies already limited by OPEC+’s production-curb agreement, geopolitical strife seems intent on pushing the commodity above the $60 mark. However, falling demand, as the economy slows, is providing a surprisingly strong counter-push.

Last week saw a 5-million barrel drawdown that would normally push prices strongly up. The downtrend was barely defiled.

How will this week’s result play out?