With earnings season to enter high gear this Friday, equities last night ended in the red after the IMF yesterday reduced its economic growth forecast for the world by 2/10 to 3.3%. More downward pressure was added when President Trump reopened another trade wars front against Airbus, saying EU subsidies are adversely impacting its US rival – beleaguered Boeing. The NFIB research foundation reported a 1/10-point increase in small business optimism for March, this despite a ½ mn drop in job openings to 7.087mn in February.
European benchmarks ended in the red yesterday, following Trump’s tariffs threat and ahead of today’s EU emergency summit regarding Brexit. Unproductive negotiations between Theresa May and Jeremy Colbert – on one side of the channel – and weak data nearly across the page – on the other – is leaving investors in a quandary. The Union is expected to provide yet another delay, but Reuters reports that France will demand the UK be barred from budget and political decisions during the delay period. UK production and trade data this morning is expected to reflect some resilience, though. Retail sales in Italy came in better than expected, this morning, despite a drop from 0.6% to 0.1% in February MoM. And today’s ECB interest rate decision is expected to confirm continued dovishness.
Japan’s domestic corporate foods price index increased to 1.3% in March MoM, while machinery orders decreased by 5.5% in February YoY from -2.9% the month before. Reuters reports that Chinese exports rebounded in March while imports fell for the 4th month in a row – this while the IMF upgraded the nation’s economic growth projection to 6.3%. In Australia, consumer confidence is up by 1.9%, compared to a 4.8% contraction in March.
Oil lost half of its daily gains yesterday after the API reported a 4 mB stocks increase, before regaining some losses. This morning’s price: $64.16 for a barrel of WTI. And while Bitcoin trading continues trending in its new 5200 region, China’s National Development Reform Commission announced Monday that it would ban crypto mining, due to the immense resources required to power hardware. Before the 2017 crackdown, almost 70% of Bitcoin mining took place in China, thanks to subsidized electricity.
|08:00 AM GMT – Italy||Industrial Output (Feb)|
|08:30 AM GMT – UK||Manufacturing & Industrial Production, Trade Balance, & Gross Domestic Product (Feb)|
|11:00 AM GMT – US||MBA Mortgage Applications (Apr 5)|
|11:45 AM GMT – EU||ECB Interest Rate & Deposit Rate Decision|
|12:30 PM GMT – US||Consumer Price Index (Mar)|
|12:30 PM GMT – EU||ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference|
|14:30 PM GMT – OIL||EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Apr 5)|
|16:00 PM GMT – EU||European Council Summit on Brexit|
|18:00 PM GMT – US||Monthly Budget Statement & FOMC Minutes|
|23:50 PM GMT – Japan||Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks & Bonds|
|00:00 PM GMT – AUD||Consumer Inflation Expectations (Apr)|
|01:30 AM GMT – China||Consumer Price Index (Mar)|
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