Markets Under Mueller Shrapnel

Markets Under Mueller Shrapnel


The Yen continues to test resistance at 0.8980 after the Nikkei manufacturing PMI for April at 0.3 points, bringing it up to a still-contractionary 49.5. Unfortunately, Chinese data is being mainly ignored by international markets – all Asian benchmarks closing this morning just slightly in the red, led by the KOSPI’s -1.37%.

The AUD spiked last night on March labour stats, employment change up by nearly 26,000 jobs and participation up a 1/10th to 65.7%.

Unfortunately, gains were short-lived, and the currency’s 2-week uptrend continues placidly, dispelling fears of an interest rate cut in the short term.


Mario Draghi’s message of added stimulus last week continues to echo as PMIs today are expected to do little to improve this sorely dragging economy. If Germany’s 2 tick drop to 2.4% YoY is an indicator, the day will be bleak.

Threats of retaliatory tariffs against the US – talks with whom are expected to begin in the coming week – are doing little for sentiment, despite yesterday’s positive data.

February’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus increased from 17.4bn Euros to 19.5 and March’s MoM CPI tripled to 1%. Italy’s trade balance also improved, the global figure up from a 1/3 of bn Euros in January to 3.268.

British numbers were also mainly red, retail prices a flat zero in March (MoM), the house price index down 2/3 to 0.6%, PPIs down and CPIs failing to meet expectations.


As a scathing Mueller report is scheduled to be released today, trading volumes are falling off ahead of the Easter weekend. Comparatively upbeat earnings this season are doing little to push US indexes – all 3 majors red, led by the S&P’s 0.23% contraction.

Mostly positive trade talks with China also part of the formula, even the USD doesn’t seem to be pulling out of the doldrums, as it continues consolidating towards the mid 96’es.

Canada offered some respite from the gloom, CPIs beating expectations in March and the international merchandise trade deficit up to $2.9bn.


WTI peaked last night after the EIA’s 1.4mB inventories reduction, after 3 gains in a row, confirmed the API report Tuesday. It failed to cross resistance at 64.50 and is once again firmly within the 9-day range.


Despite a 7% decline in revenues YoY, Morgan Stanley yesterday delivered a relatively decent report – $1.39 earnings per share, down from last year’s $1.45, on revenues of $10.3bn. Today’s reports will be in from American Express, CheckPoint and Saipem energy works.


07:15 AM GMT – FranceMarkit Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMIs (Apr)
07:30 AM GMT – GermanyMarkit Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMIs (Apr)
08:00 AM GMT – EUMarkit Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMIs (Apr)
08:30 AM GMT – UK Retail Sales ex-Fuel (Mar)
09:00 AM GMT – ItalyIndustrial Sales & Orders (Feb)
12:30 PM GMT – USRetail Sales (Mar), Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims (Apr 12), & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Apr)
12:30 PM GMT – CanadaADP Employment Change (Mar) & Retail Sales (Feb)
13:45 PM GMT – USMarkit Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMIs (Apr), & Business Inventories (Feb) at 14:00
23:30 PM GMT – JapanCPIs (Mar)

For more, visit our Economic Calendar