Indexes this morning are following the US and European green lead, but not as impressively, the Nikkei jittering on either side of the 0-mark, and Shanghai up a third. Japan held on to the tails of China’s manufacturing data yesterday, presenting a 3-tick increase to 49.2, based on the Nikkei PMI, while India’s figure fell to a 6-month low of 52.6 (though still expansionary). Meanwhile, Australia held on to its 1.5% interest rate decision, despite fears of a dovish turnaround. Fortunately, strong employment figures plus Chinese optimism have so far thwarted a cut.
Despite the Brexit Brouhaha, it would seem that the only country to receive a thumbs up from the Markit group for their manufacturing PMI yesterday was Britain – up 3 points to 55.1 in March. Canada, the US, France, Germany and the EU all disappointed with up to 3 points loss each. Germany’s PMI, down to 44.1 from 47.6, was its worst reading in 80 months – its third contractionary result (below 50) in a row. Unemployment in Italy was up 2 ticks to 10.7%, the EU’s consumer price index came down 2 to 0.8% and real estate sales in Switzerland remained level at -0.2%. Apparently energized by positive Chinese manufacturing data, the DAX added a percent and a 1/3 yesterday, the FTSE at the tail end of the European revival with a half percent growth.
Alongside displeasing US retail data – down in February to -0.2% from January’s +0.7% – and manufacturing data yesterday from Canada and the US, based on Markit research, the ISM figure actually showed a 1-point increase in March. Construction spending fell from 2.5% to 1, though not as bad as expected. The US dollar managed to add 0.06%, and indexes climbed into the green to the tune of a percent plus each. Bank of Canada governor Stephan Poloz yesterday echoed his southern colleagues when referring to the bond yield inversion that also spread to Canadian markets. He called the inversion “innocent” and saw no signs of a pending recession.
Oil rose swiftly throughout yesterday’s US session, on continuing production cuts, which include the US’s 91kB/d cut reported by the EIA Friday, breaching the $61 mark in almost a bull gap and steadying during the Asian session well above 61.60. Meanwhile, gold trading continues its week-long dive as safe-haven assets lose attraction on Chinese data. It is now bouncing off support at 1290. And Bitcoin seems to be making a comeback, renewing its days of glory with a $500 jump to $4670. It added 17% in 30 minutes this morning – 20% over the past day. This is despite a report in the Wall Street Journal that claims that nearly 95% of all reported trading in the currency is artificial and takes place on unregulated exchanges. The reason for the jump – an April Fool’s prank stating that the SEC had approved 2 Bitcoin-based ETFs.
|08:30 AM GMT – UK||Markit Construction PMI (Mar)|
|09:00 AM GMT – EU||Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)|
|12:30 PM GMT – US||Durable Goods Orders (Feb)|
|12:55 PM GMT – US||Redbook Index (Mar 29)|
|20:30 PM GMT – OIL||API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Mar 25)|
|23:011 PM GMT – UK||BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (Mar)|
|00:30 AM GMT (+1) – Japan||Markit Services PMI (Mar)|
|00:30 AM GMT (+1) – AUS||Retail Sales, Trade Balance, Exports & Imports (Feb)|
|01:45 AM GMT (+1) – China||Caixin Services PMI (Mar)|
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