Asian markets are generally up this morning, after Bank Of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned against capital outflows and global uncertainties. China’s minister of finance said he would restrict foreign direct investments in IT as of August, while a spokesman for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission warned against shorting the Yuan.
This morning finds Switzerland’s Q1 GDP up 2 tenths to 1.7% YoY, and the trade surplus down to 2.3bn CHF. With little data arriving yesterday thanks to Britain’s Spring Bank Holiday, this morning’s data shows German consumer confidence down a tick to 10.1 towards June. All sentiment markers today, it should be noted, were taken before the European Parliament elections, so they do not factor in results. The Euro has been trending downwards since election results were announced for the European Parliament. These show that, while Eurosceptic parties made a strong showing, the pro-EU parties maintained their edge, though are now more fragmented – the centre losing power to more leftist-inclined Liberals, Greens and others.
Brexit brings good news to the US, as Reuters this morning reports that a Duff & Phelps survey shows New York overtaking London as the world’s major financial centre. 12% of responders expect Hong Kong to take the cup within 5 years. Meanwhile, Canada is the first country to begin ratification of the new USMCA deal, which is slated to replace the 25-year old Mexico-Canada-US NAFTA treaty.
After rejecting support at $58 yesterday, this morning finds crude oil futures trending just above 59. Backwind is being provided by US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, alongside OPEC’s refusal to make up for the shortfall.
After its 10% surge on Sunday, Bitcoin technical show the present uptrend is still strong. The 20 and 50dMAs are diverging; volumes are significantly higher; and only the RSI – hugging 70 on the hourly chart – is showing overbought conditions. At present, a pendant has formed around 8730, and a breakthrough towards 10K is conceivable, should the fundamentals provide impetus. On the other hand, the USD is on its way up, the yen and gold down, so that we shouldn’t look to risk aversion being a factor.
Alibaba this morning announced it was considering listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange – thus providing access to Chinese investors through the Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen trading link. The company, which made stock listing history in 2014 with the largest IPO of all times (it raised $21bn on the New York Stock Exchange), is returning home – it was in the past listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, then delisted in 2012.
|08:00 AM GMT – Italy||Trade Balance (Apr)|
|08:00 AM GMT – EU||Money Supply (Apr). Consumer & Industrial Confidence, Business Climate & Services Sentiment at 09:00.|
|08:30 AM GMT – UK||Mortgage Approvals (Apr) and Inflation Report Hearings. BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (May) at 23:01|
|13:00 PM GMT – US||S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (Mar), Consumer Confidence at 14:00, and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (May) at 14:30|
|21:00 PM GMT – NZ||RBNZ Financial Stability Report. Activity Outlook & Business Confidence (May) at 01:00 (+1)|
|00:00 AM GMT – Japan||BoJ’s Governor Kuroda speech|
|n.d. – Australia||New Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)|
For more, visit our Economic Calendar