The U.S. Elections and Gold
The financial markets and the world at large are waiting for the most important event of the year, the U.S. presidential elections, which is now less than six days away. This particular event has made investors and traders highly cautious, and no one wants to take too much risk ahead of this event. This is despite the fact that polls are widely favouring that the Democratic leader, Joe Biden, is highly likely to win the election.
However, traders have learned from their past mistakes and do not want to rely on the polls, as they often tend to be terribly wrong. Given the fact that the stakes are high, and there is enormous uncertainty, traders are also dumping the dollar index, and this is keeping the gold price high. Although, today, gold is trading in negative territory, but the losses are minuscule. The fact that the gold price is trading above $1,900 per ounce, traders are hopeful for a further upward move in the gold price.
Another factor that can also support the gold price is that it is likely that the outcome of the U.S. presidential election may not be decided on November 3rd. There is a strong possibility that President Trump may not accept the outcome of the U.S. election, as he may contest it. This remains the most significant threat for the U.S. market, and this is keeping traders on edge. Hence, they are not favouring the riskier assets.
In the commodity space, we still see more weakness for the oil price, and that’s because traders are concerned about oil supply, as oil demand remains remarkably low. The API report confirmed that the U.S. crude stockpiles rose 4.58 million barrels last week. This is the last thing that investors want to see. Currently, the Crude oil is trading below $40, and it is likely that the price may continue its journey toward the $37 mark.
The global coronavirus cases have jumped over 43 million, and more than 1.1 million souls have lost their lives. The second coronavirus wave has become a major concern for governments around the globe because daily cases are pretty much at a record level.
The daily death rate in France is sitting at their highest level, and lawmakers are proposing another one-month lockdown starting from Thursday. The fear is that national lockdowns can happen across Europe, and if European countries go back into lockdown, then we could see a lot more economic pain in the Eurozone. This means more economic aid.
In terms of a vaccine, Pfizer isn’t sending very positive messages, as the company has said that the progress on the potential vaccine is a little below their expectations. Pfizer is still far from reaching its key milestone. Unless the company reaches this key milestone, it is difficult to see how economic confidence can return and boost sentiment among traders.
Bitcoin is set to skyrocket again, as the price is ready to cross above the 14K resistance level. Bitcoin is trading at its highest level since the 2018 price crash, and given the momentum that we see in the price, it is highly likely that it may continue its journey towards the all-time high of 20K. The next milestone though is not the $20K level. It is for Bitcoin to move all the way to $50K.
The reality is that more and more companies are adopting Bitcoin and providing access to digital assets through traditional platforms like PayPal and Fidelity. In addition to this, we also have central banks around the globe that are thinking of creating their own digital currencies, and this adds even more appeal to Bitcoin.