Today is all about one important economic event that is going to keep traders laser focused. Today is ECB day. It is today when the European Central Bank will release its monetary policy decision. The big question in investors’ and traders’ minds is how the ECB’s monetary policy decision will influence the Euro? Will the Euro take a plunge, or will we see the European currency flourish today?
Looking at the current monetary policy by the ECB, it is very clear that the bank has one of the most dovish monetary policy’s among all other central banks. During their last meeting, the ECB said that it wants to keep rates lower for a longer period of time, because there are still serious threats for the region from the Covid-19 Delta variant. The bank also made its stance clear on inflation by signalling that inflation isn’t much of an issue—it is only transitory. If we look at the inflation numbers in the Eurozone now, they are sitting at a 10-year high, and it begs the question for how long can the ECB let inflation run so hot?
Not An Easy Task
There is no doubt that the ECB doesn’t have an easy task to handle. Perhaps the ECB’s situation is the most difficult among all other central banks because of the uneven distribution of wealth within the Eurozone countries and large differences in economic data. In addition to this, the Delta variant isn’t the only constant threat for the Eurozone’s economies, but it is the mutation of this virus that is keeping the situation more complex than ever.
Having said that, European countries are handling the virus situation much better now than a few quarters ago. Over the summer period, we saw Covid infection numbers coming under control in countries like France, Italy, and Spain. European countries eased off many travel restrictions and welcomed travellers back, which had a more positive influence on their economies. However, that trend has shifted again now as countries have adopted a more cautious tone in relaxing further travel restrictions. Some of them are rolling back those relaxed rules due to the emerging threats from the Delta variant.
Looking at the economic data from the biggest economy of the Eurozone, which is also known as the economic engine of the zone, Germany, economic numbers have started to display weakness. For instance, the German ZEW survey, which tells us the situation about investor sentiment, fell to its lowest level since March last year. The IFO Business Confidence index also fell, but the drop wasn’t as steep as the ZEW number.
What To Expect
The ECB has two important asset purchase programmes: the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) and the Asset Purchase Programme (APP). The ECB may likely reduce PEPP and leave the APP untouched. But tapering any of these programs is highly likely to be considered a hawkish sign by the market players, which could be positive for the Euro.
In addition to the monetary policy rate decision, the ECB is also going to provide an update on its economic projections for the region as well. Inflation and economic growth projections are highly likely to see an upgrade today. So, currency traders aren’t only going to be looking at the monetary policy alone when placing bets on the Euro, but the economic projections are also going to matter as well. Looking at the price for the Euro against most of the major pairs, it is pretty clear that the currency didn’t have much luck for the past three days; however, that can change.
Bullish and Bearish
The most bullish scenario for the Euro currency could be if the ECB reduces the asset purchases for one of its programmes. At the same time, it it lifts its economic projections for the region. The Euro could skyrocket under that scenario. The most bearish scenario may be if the bank doesn’t touch its asset purchase programme and it doesn’t sound very optimistic about economic projections as well. Under that scenario, we could see the Euro really taking a massive move to the downside.
Crypto markets continue to struggle, and it seems like traders aren’t sure what to do after the massive sell-off. Basically, there is a lot of confusion among investors and traders when they look at Bitcoin. Firstly, when they look at the price action, they know that Bitcoin struggles when it gets closer to the resistance of 50 to 52K, but then they also know that the current upward trend is still intact.
On the regulatory side, things have also started to look more difficult as the new Sheriff on Wall Street has started to make its presence known. For instance, Coinbase receiving a regulatory letter from the SEC isn’t a small thing as the crypto exchange is the most regulated one. If Coinbase can receive such a strong letter from the SEC, other exchanges which have much looser regulatory frameworks should be seriously worried.
Having said that, traders shouldn’t allow their judgment to be clouded with the regulatory scrutiny, as it was very much expected that the regulators would adopt a tough stance towards crypto actors, but this has nothing to do with the existence of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is here to stay now, and any pullback could only be considered as an opportunity to bag some bargains.